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JPAM Early View Preview for May 2013

  • 1.  JPAM Early View Preview for May 2013

    Posted 05-15-2013 13:53

     

     

    JPAM Preview ▪ May 2013

     

    JPAM Preview is a newsletter that calls attention to forthcoming articles in JPAM.

    JPAM Preview provides brief summaries of content now available digitally in Early View,

    Wiley's online publication system.

     

     

     

     

    Feature Article

    The Use and Efficacy of Capacity-Building Assistance for Low-Performing Districts: The Case of California's District Assistance and Intervention Teams

         Katharine O. Strunk, Andrew McEachin, and Theresa N. Westover

    The theory of action upon which high-stakes accountability policies are based calls for systemic reforms in educational systems that will emerge by pairing incentives for improvement with extensive and targeted technical assistance (TA) to build the capacity of low-performing schools and districts. To this end, a little discussed and often overlooked aspect of the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) mandated that, in addition to sanctions, states were required to provide TA to build the capacity of struggling schools and Local Education Agencies (LEAs, or districts) to help them improve student achievement. Although every state in the country provides some form of TA to its lowest performing districts, we know little about the content of these programs or about their efficacy in improving student performance. In this paper, we use both quantitative and qualitative analyses to explore the actions taken by TA providers in one state-California-and examine whether the TA and support tied to California's NCLB sanctions succeeds in improving student achievement. Like many other states, California requires that districts labeled as persistently failing under NCLB (in Program Improvement year 3, PI3) work with external experts to help them build the capacity to make reforms that will improve student achievement. California's lowest performing PI3 districts are given substantial amounts of funding and are required to contract with state-approved District Assistance and Intervention Teams (DAITs), whereas the remaining PI3 districts receive less funding and are asked to access less intensive TA from non-DAIT providers. We use a five-year panel difference-in-difference design to estimate the impacts of DAITs on student performance on the math and English language arts (ELA) standardized tests relative to non-DAIT TA during the two years of the program intervention. We find that students in districts with DAITs perform significantly better on math California Standards Tests (CSTs) averaged over both treatment years and in each of the first and second years. We do not find evidence that students in districts with DAITs perform higher on ELA CSTs over the combined two years of treatment, although we find suggestive evidence that ELA performance increases in the second year of treatment relative to students in districts with non-DAIT TA. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions that explore the association between specific activities fostered by DAITs and changes in districts' gains in achievement over the two years of treatment show that DAIT districts that report increasing their focus on using data to guide instruction, shifting district culture to generate and maintain high expectations of students and staff, and increasing within-district accountability for student performance, have higher math achievement gains over the course of the DAIT treatment. In addition, DAIT districts that increase their focus on ELA instruction and shift district culture to one of high expectations have higher ELA achievement gains than do DAIT districts that do not have a similar focus. © 2012 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.  Link to JPAM Early ViewIf you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Cream-skimming, Parking and Other Intended and Unintended Effects of High-Powered, Performance-Based Contracts

         Pierre Koning and Carolyn J. Heinrich

    As performance-based contracting in social welfare services continues to expand, concerns about potential unintended effects are also growing. We analyze the incentive effects of high-powered, performance-based contracts and their implications for program outcomes using panel data on Dutch cohorts of unemployed and disabled workers that were assigned to private social welfare providers in 2002 to 2005. We employ a difference-in-differences design that takes advantage of the fact that contracts gradually moved from partial performance-contingent pay to full (100 percent) performance-contingent contracting schemes. We develop explicit measures of selection into the programs and find evidence of cream skimming and other gaming activities on the part of providers, but little impact of these activities on program outcomes. Moving to a system with contract payments fully contingent on performance appears to increase job placements, but not job duration, for more readily employable workers.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Fiscal Rules and the Composition of Government Expenditures in OECD Countries

         Momi Dahan and Michael Strawczynski

    Since the 1990s many OECD countries have adopted fiscal rules. After the adoption of these rules, the ratio of social transfers to government consumption substantially declined, and it recovered following the global economic crisis. Using a sample of 22 OECD countries, we found a negative effect of fiscal rules on the ratio of social transfers to government consumption. This finding implies that fiscal rules are effective, but not necessarily binding. Our examination reveals that the negative effect of fiscal rules on the social transfers to government consumption ratio is particularly evident in countries with relatively weak legal protection to social rights.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Has the Shift to Managed Care Reduced Medicaid Expenditures? Evidence from State and Local-Level Mandates

         Mark Duggan and Tamara Hayford

    From 1991 to 2009, the fraction of Medicaid recipients enrolled in HMOs and other forms of Medicaid managed care (MMC) increased from 11 percent to 71 percent. This increase was largely driven by state and local mandates that required most Medicaid recipients to enroll in an MMC plan. Theoretically, it is ambiguous whether the shift from fee-for-service into managed care would lead to an increase or a reduction in Medicaid spending. This paper investigates this effect using a data set on state- and local-level MMC mandates and detailed data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on state Medicaid expenditures. The findings suggest that shifting Medicaid recipients from fee-for-service into MMC did not on average reduce Medicaid spending. If anything, our results suggest that the shift to MMC increased Medicaid spending and that this effect was especially present for risk-based HMOs. However, the effects of the shift to MMC on Medicaid spending varied significantly across states as a function of the generosity of the state's baseline Medicaid provider reimbursement rates.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    State Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity

         Daniel L. Smith and Jeffrey B. Wenger

    This paper employs panel estimators with data on the 50 American states for the years 1963 to 2006 to test the relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund solvency and UI benefit generosity. We find that both average and maximum weekly UI benefit amounts, as ratios to the average weekly wage, are higher in states and in years with more highly solvent trust funds. This result holds after controlling for state-level unemployment rate, gross domestic product, population growth, legislative political ideology, partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and gubernatorial election year across multiple specifications, including fixed-effects and dynamic panel estimators. We propose a theory of moderate coupling as the causal mechanism, whereby UI program benefits and financing are directly related but are not as tightly linked as in other social insurance programs, such as Medicaid. The findings have important policy implications for the funding of states' UI systems. As a consequence of moderate coupling, the countercyclicality of the UI program is dampened.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3). Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Technical Management in an Age of Openness: The Political, Public, and Environmental Forest Ranger

         Sarah E. Anderson, Heather E. Hodges, and Terry L. Anderson

    Modern bureaucracy faces trade-offs between public and congressional input and agency expertise. The U.S. Forest Service offers an opportunity to quantitatively analyze whether an agency that is required to be more open to the public and congressional input will be forced to ignore its technical expertise in managing resources. This study uses data on 83,000 hazardous fuels reduction activities conducted by the Forest Service from 2001 to 2011. Although the results show that managers are responsive to public and congressional considerations, this has not prevented them from utilizing their technical knowledge to restore lands most deviated from natural conditions. This suggests that managers can balance responsiveness to public and political principals with technically sound management.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Teacher Pension Systems, the Composition of the Teaching Workforce, and Teacher Quality

         Cory Koedel, Michael Podgursky, and Shishan Shi

    Teacher pension systems concentrate retirements within a narrow range of the career cycle by penalizing individuals who separate too soon or remain employed too long. The penalties result in the retention of some teachers who would otherwise choose to leave, and the premature exit of some teachers who would otherwise choose to stay. We examine the link between teachers' pension incentives and workforce quality and find no evidence to suggest that the incentives raise quality. Given the large and growing costs associated with maintaining teacher pension systems, and the lack of evidence regarding their efficacy, experimentation by traditional and charter schools with alternative retirement benefit structures would be useful.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3). Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Experimental Text of the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Model of Citizen Satisfaction

         Gregg G. Van Ryzin

    A number of prior studies have found evidence for the expectancy-disconfirmation theory of citizen satisfaction with public services, which holds that citizens judge public services not only on experienced service quality but also on an implicit comparison of service quality with prior expectations. But the evidence to date has been based on surveys (observational studies) and on subjective measures of expectations and performance, which are likely endogenous. Thus, the present study aimed to test the expectancy-disconfirmation theory of citizen satisfaction with public services using an experimental method. Participants in an Internet panel (N = 964) were randomly assigned to receive either low- or high-expectations statements from a hypothetical government official and to view either low- or high-performance street cleanliness photographs, in an online survey experiment. The findings are in line with previous research and generally confirm the core relationships in the theory, although the effect of expectations varied by age and political ideology. Because this study is a true randomized experiment, it provides better evidence than previous studies regarding the true causal nature of these relationships.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Aviation Security, risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

         Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk-averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit. We employ a "break-even" cost-benefit analysis to determine the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack that is required for the benefit of security measures to equal their cost. In this context, we examine specific policy options: including Improvised Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs) in the array of aircraft security measures, including the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and including them both. Attack probabilities need to exceed 260 percent or 2.6 attacks per year to be 90 percent sure that FAMS is cost-effective, whereas IPSBs have more than 90 percent chance of being cost-effective even if attack probabilities are as low as 6 percent per year. A risk-neutral analysis finds a policy option of adding IPSBs but not FAMS to the other measures to be preferred for all attack probabilities. However, a very risk-averse decisionmaker is 48 percent likely to prefer to retain FAMS even if the attack probability is as low as 1 percent per year-a level of risk aversion exhibited by few, if any, government agencies. Overall, it seems that, even in an analysis that biases the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, far too much may currently be spent on security measures to address the problem of airline hijacking, and many spending reductions could likely be made with little or no consequent reduction of security.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    Feature Article

    Would a Value-Added System of Retention Improve the Distribution of Teacher Quality? A Simulation of Alternative Policies

         Marcus A. Winters and Joshua M. Cowen

    In this paper, we consider several features of teacher-retention policies based on value-added measures of effectiveness under a variety of empirically grounded rules and parameters. We consider the effects of policy design by varying the standard above which satisfactory teachers are expected to perform. We simulate recently adopted policies that remove teachers based on consecutive unsatisfactory performance and compare these to policies that remove teachers based on poor performance on average over a multiyear period. We also consider the precision of the performance measure and the underlying variation in teacher quality on policy effects. Finally, the simulation makes a step forward by incorporating recent empirical findings of a relationship between teacher quality and natural attrition from the profession. Our results indicate that deselection policies based on value-added measures have the potential to improve teacher quality, although understanding the role of policy design, self-selected exits, and the underlying variation in teacher quality is essential for determining policy effects.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

    International Conference News

    Trends in Migration and Migration Policy

         Douglas J. Besharov, Mark H. Lopez and Melissa Siegel

    Worldwide, more than 215 million people have left the countries of their birth and moved elsewhere (World Bank, 2011). These migrants make up more than 3 percent of the world's population. Another 700 million adults say they would migrate to another country if they could, according to polls conducted by Gallup (Esipova & Ray, 2009).

    Almost all of the world's nations are either sending or receiving countries, or both. As of 2010, the world's top three migrant sending countries were Mexico (about 12 million), India (about 11 million), and Russia (about 11 million). The top regional destinations were North America, Europe, and the Gulf States, which together contained about 44 percent of the world's migrant population. The United States, alone, had more than 42 million migrants, making it the world's top receiving country. As a region, though, Europe (depending on how defined), had about as many migrants. Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, together, had about 38 million migrants in 2010. The Gulf States of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, combined, had more than 15 million migrants (World Bank, 2011).

    Public attitudes toward migration differ among receiving countries. In 2011, for example, a majority of adults in Spain, the UK, and the U.S. told the German Marshall Fund's (GMF) Transatlantic Trends Survey (2011) that "immigration is more of a problem" than "an opportunity" (p. 5). In other countries, such as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, opinion was split: just about as many adults said "immigration is a problem" as said "immigration is an opportunity" (p. 5). Only among Canadian adults (surveyed through 2010) did a majority see immigration as more of an opportunity (German Marshall Fund, 2010, p. 4). These differences are likely the result of the receiving country's social values and economic situation, as well as the history and characteristics of migration in that country.

    Views in sending countries are also mixed. In a 2012 Pew Research Center survey, half of Mexican adults (50 percent) said "people leaving [Mexico] for jobs in other countries" was "a very big problem" for Mexico (Pew Global Attitudes, 2012, p. 15). The same survey, however, found other issues more likely to be rated as "very big problems" (p. 16) for Mexico: cartel-related violence (according to 75 percent of Mexican adults), human rights violations by the military and police (74 percent), crime (73 percent), corrupt political leaders (69 percent), economic problems (68 percent), illegal drugs (68 percent), terrorism (62 percent), and pollution (58 percent).

    In 2010, the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM), the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, and the University of Maryland School of Public Policy held an international conference on migration in Maastricht, the Netherlands. Titled: Migration: A World in Motion: A Multinational Conference on Migration and Migration Policy, the conference brought together a worldwide audience of academics and professionals from think tanks, government agencies, the private sector, and civil society.  Forthcoming in JPAM 32(3)Link to JPAM Early View.  If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article.

     

     

     

     

    Journal of Policy Analysis and Management is published by Wiley Periodicals on behalf of the

    Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

     

    Editor-in-Chief: Maureen Pirog ▪ Indiana University,

    School of Public and Environmental Affairs (and)

    University of Washington,

    Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs

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    Christopher (Kitt) Carpenter ▪ University of California, Irvine 

     

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